The Associate Director, Forecasting will lead the US and Global forecasting for both inline and pipeline assets. The role will also be responsible for integrating insights into forecasts for the Arcutis portfolio of products.
Roles & Responsibilities
Provide an objective and rigorous point of view to demand and patient-based forecasting for pipeline and inline products, while collaborating with teams including marketing, finance, market access and other functions.
Lead and own the development of Long-Range Plan (LRP) & Latest Estimate (LE) forecasts, ad-hoc forecasting requests and support commercial assessments for business development opportunities.
Responsible for the sales forecasting process. Proactively monitor and maintain high level of quality, accuracy, and process consistency in the planning efforts. Coordinate activities with other functions and stakeholders.
Weekly Forecast tracking across multiple indications.
Independently lead quick turnaround projects and deliver quality assessments, collaborating with Senior Leadership.
Demonstrate strong project management, prioritization and timeline execution across projects when working independently as well as when working with the vendors or internal teams. Ensure all forecasts are developed with detailed rationale, assumptions and storyboarding.
Demonstrate excellent communication, presentation, MS PowerPoint & Excel skills.
Support pre-launch, post-launch forecasting efforts at product and portfolio level and work seamlessly with cross-functional teams.
Play an active role in interpreting and applying insights from Competitive Intelligence and Market Research to integrate it with high quality forecast models at asset and portfolio level.
Explain modeling assumptions and triangulate assumptions with external data sources, analyst reports and other forecasting models to pressure test them and develop scenarios.
Perform analyses estimating disease area revenue potential, sales coverage, market size, class penetration, marketing practices and future trends.
Incorporate working knowledge of payer and contracting landscape into forecasting.
Coordinate with finance and broader commercial operations team to develop and align on forecasting inputs.
Manage professional relationships with internal partners and external vendors.
Build solid relationships and become a trusted advisor to the Commercial team, guiding brand strategies and tactics based on superior, objective customer insights.
Effectively manage multiple external vendor/partner relationships to ensure high quality services, the utmost compliance with the company and industry policies, practices and regulations, and seamless integration with internal processes and teams.
Integrate multiple data sources to assess market landscape and product performance across product portfolio. Present findings to key stakeholders and design research studies for a deeper dive, as needed
Identify appropriate innovative forecasting methodologies/techniques to uncover growth opportunities - both at the brand level, as well as the overall portfolio.
Collaborate within the Commercial Operations team to convey to Commercial team and executive leadership holistic, actionable learnings.
Other duties that may be assigned.
Education & Licenses and Experience
Typically requires a Bachelor’s degree in a related field and 8 or more years of relevant market research, marketing, commercial operations, or other relevant experience.
MBA or Master’s degree is preferred. Previous experience in a consultative role is a plus.
Competencies & Skills
Strong experience with advanced Excel and Tableau, patient based forecast modeling and patient flows
Experience with quantitative techniques including smoothing, regression, time series analysis
Experience working with secondary datasets such as IQVIA, Symphony, Flatiron EMR, DRG etc. to conduct custom analysis
Working knowledge of forecasting inputs including global pricing, access and reimbursement policies, and competitive environment and potential impact on product development and commercialization strategy
Ability to work in a fast-paced, dynamic environment with little supervision
Ability to adapt well under pressure
Strong collaboration skills
Possess an expert understanding of research methodologies.
Possess a curiosity and openness to new insight methodologies and a drive to expand the toolkit to better serve the business
Excellent strategic thinking capabilities and equally excellent tactical execution skills
Analytical reasoning abilities, intellectual curiosity, strong business acumen, and creativity in problem solving
Ability to interact effectively with/present to (verbally and in writing) all levels of the organization, from Product Managers to Senior Executives
Expert knowledge of custom research methodologies
Proven experience as a high performer and thought leader
Excellent project management skills with demonstrated ability to lead multiple projects and priorities
Ability to effectively organize and prioritize tasks to achieve established deadlines
Travel may be required up to 20% of time worked
Why Join Us?
Arcutis is a pioneering medical dermatology company dedicated to revolutionizing the treatment of serious skin diseases and our pipeline is one of the more robust and exiting in the industry. Our vision is to revitalize the standard of care for dermatological diseases and conditions through novel therapies that simplify disease management for physicians and patients. We are focused on filling the innovation gap in medical dermatology drug development by applying our deep clinical, product development and commercial expertise in dermatology to develop best-in-class therapies against biologically validated targets. Arcutis is uniquely positioned to become the preeminent innovation-driven medical dermatology company, and we are looking for top talent to join our team. We are nimble, collaborative, and passionate about achieving our mission!
Arcutis is an Equal Opportunity Employer and does not discriminate against any employee or applicant for employment because of race, color, sex, age, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, gender identity, status as a veteran, and basis of disability or any other federal, state or local protected class.